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Are investors joining rally too late?

Written By limadu on Kamis, 31 Oktober 2013 | 23.53

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Should that be a cause for concern? Perhaps.

Investors have poured $277 billion into stock-based mutual funds and exchange traded funds through Oct. 25. In 2000, $324 billion went into these funds.

And even with the Dow and S&P 500 at all-time highs, investors continue to pile into stocks.

Related: Fear & Greed Index shows investors are greedy

As of Friday, inflows for October had reached $50 billion, making it the fifth largest monthly inflow on record. The top two months of inflows both happened this year: $66.3 billion in January and $55.3 billion in July.

"The inflows we've seen this year have definitely been extreme," said David Santschi, chief executive of TrimTabs.

Meanwhile, investors have been pulling money out of bond funds at the fastest clip since ... you guessed it ... 2000.

Mutual funds and ETFs that invest in bonds have reported an outflow of $31 billion so far this year. Thirteen years ago, $50 billion was pulled out of bond funds.

Why this may not be another bubble: All of this begs the question, is the market headed for a repeat of 2000?

It's tempting to draw this conclusion given the rich valuations that many technology companies currently enjoy. Netflix (NFLX), Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) come to mind.

Related: Amazon is one of the most overvalued stocks

But there doesn't seem to be the same level of "irrational exuberance," to quote former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, in today's market.

"Predicting market tops with fund flow data is not an exact science," said Santschi. "But it's a good contrarian indicator."

Some experts have dubbed this the most hated bull market in history. Many investors say the Fed is pushing them to own stocks by holding short-term interest rates at record lows and keeping a lid on longer-term rates with its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases.

Last one in? Last one out? The conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that retail investors, who are the main participants in mutual funds and ETFs, tend to jump into stocks just before the market reaches a top.

That was the case in 2000. In the three months leading up to the Nasdaq's peak in March 2000, investors put more than $138 billion into equity mutual funds and ETFs, nearly half of what was invested in stocks for that entire year.

Investors continued to put money into equity funds until Feb. 2001, although the pace slowed as stock prices continued to plunge.

However, the idea that small investors come late to the party does not always hold true.

In a paper published earlier this year, Birinyi Associates found that only four of the past nine bull markets followed this pattern. In the other five, equity fund flows were the highest at the beginning or in the middle of the cycle. In other words, the average investor got in early or only shortly after stocks started to surge.

This happened most recently during the bull market that began after the 2000 tech crash. Investors started to heavily pour money into stocks in March 2003, getting in relatively early on a run that lasted until October 2007.

Kevin Pleines, an equity analyst at Birinyi Associates, said that his firm has looked at bull markets going back to 1962. He dismissed the notion that the general public gets into stocks too late as "market lore."

Pleines acknowledged that equity inflows this year have been "notably positive," but he said inflows have not reached "a level that leads us to believe that the public is 'all in' on stocks."

So it's not that investors are necessarily excited about stocks. There just aren't any better alternatives for investors right now. To top of page

First Published: October 31, 2013: 9:31 AM ET


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China's Craigslist soars in IPO

china craigslist

58.com, which is often referred to as China's Craiglist, is a winner on Wall Street.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

58.com, the leading classifieds site for local merchants in China, made its U.S. stock market debut Thursday. And investors welcomed it with open arms.

58.com (WUBA) priced its initial offering of 11 million shares at $17. The stock, which trades under WUBA, surged more than 50% to above $26 by late morning.

The company, often referred to as China's Craigslist, operates online marketplaces in 380 cities across China. It did become profitable this year, reporting net income of $300,000 on sales of $58 million in the first half of 2013. It posted a net loss of $30 million on sales of $87.1 million for all of 2012.

The sizzling debut of 58.com is not a huge surprise. Chinese internet stocks have been incredibly hot this year.

Related: Meet Alibaba, Yahoo's Chinese secret weapon

Shares of Baidu (BIDU), the Chinese search engine often compared to Google (GOOG, Fortune 500), are up 90% this year. Baidu reported better-than-expected sales and earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday.

Sina Corp. (SINA), which operates the Twitter-like microbloging website Weibo, has gained 63%. In April, online retailer Alibaba, often referred to as China's eBay (EBAY, Fortune 500), took an 18% stake in Weibo. The deal valued Weibo at $3.3 billion. Twitter, by contrast, could have a market value north of $10 billion, according to securities documents filed last week.

And Alibaba is gearing up for its own IPO. It's unclear if it will chose to list in Hong Kong or sell shares in the United States. Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) is a big stakeholder in Alibaba.

51job (JOBS), an online job search website similar to Monster.com (MWW), has surged more 60% this year.

But there is one notable Chinese dot-com stock that's sitting out the big rally. Shares of Renren (RENN), the social network known as China's Facebook (FB, Fortune 500), are down 3% for the year. To top of page

First Published: October 31, 2013: 11:59 AM ET


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One big happy brokerage

GRE18 scottrade

From left: CEO Rodger Riney and Lindsay Morrison conduct a live chat; employees celebrate Hawaiian shirt day; Scottrade's team at a charity event in St. Louis.

(Fortune)

Scottrade CEO and founder Rodger Riney expects his employees to have fun at work. But on April Fools' Day -- during the height of the flash-mob craze -- even he couldn't have guessed that his staff would surprise him with a dance routine to Taio Cruz's "Dynamite."

In a video posted on YouTube, the wide-eyed look on Riney's face serves as a reward for the month of rehearsals put in by a troupe of a few dozen financial services professionals.

True, flash mobs don't happen every day at Scottrade. Celebrations and camaraderie, however -- including free birthday lunches, ice cream socials, cook-offs, and a recent carnival for employees and their families -- are routine at a company that has appeared on Fortune's 100 Best Companies list for the past six years.


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Pet med

Market indexes are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer LIBOR Warning: Neither BBA Enterprises Limited, nor the BBA LIBOR Contributor Banks, nor Reuters, can be held liable for any irregularity or inaccuracy of BBA LIBOR. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2013 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Disclaimer The Dow Jones IndexesSM are proprietary to and distributed by Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and have been licensed for use. All content of the Dow Jones IndexesSM © 2013 is proprietary to Dow Jones & Company, Inc. Chicago Mercantile Association. The market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2013. All rights reserved. Most stock quote data provided by BATS.
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Fewer FBI agents, fighter jets from 2014 cuts

WASHINGTON (CNNMoney)

These are just some of the consequences of budget cuts that government agencies are predicting could happen next year.

In mid-January, another round of bone-deep cuts are scheduled to be rolled out. They are part of the sequester, or spending cuts that went into effect in March and will last through the year 2022.

"What we're going to see is really tough decisions, really cutting into the bone of programs," said Scott Klinger, director of revenue and spending policies at the Center for Effective Government, a budget watchdog group. "The belt tightening, the deferred maintenance, the tapping of rainy day funds -- it's all been done already."

A group of lawmakers met on Wednesday to begin talks about funding the rest of the 2014 fiscal year through September, and the panel could recommend ways to replace the sequester or mitigate its hit. The panel meets again in two weeks.

Related: Aiming for more than bupkis on the budget

The March cuts of $80 billion resulted in 57,000 fewer kids in early childhood education programs, delays in federal criminal cases and furloughs for more than 650,000 federal defense workers. The January round of cuts will total $109 billion.

Senate Democrats want to get rid of sequester.

House Republicans want to keep the sequester but spare defense. And federal agencies are trying to figure out what they will have left that won't cut their mission to the core.

Related: Spending cuts are hurting the economy

At the Pentagon, another year of sequester would mean that Air Force couldn't afford four or five of the 19 F-35 fighter jets requested for 2014, principal deputy Air Force secretary William LaPlante told a congressional panel last week.

"The Air Force, after sequestration, is going to be smaller, less capable, less ready and less flexible -- that's the bottom line," LaPlante said.

The National Institutes of Health estimates that 640 fewer research projects got funded in 2013 compared to 2012. That could happen again in 2014, warned NIH Director Francis Collins in a speech.

"Which of those would have been the next breakthrough in cancer?" he said at a forum on national health. "Which of those investigators would have been the Nobel Prize winner we would celebrate in 20 years? We'll never know," he said.

FBI Director James Comey said last month that his agency stopped training new agents at the FBI Academy in Quantico, Va. When the new round of sequester rolls out, the FBI would have to cut $800 million from its budget, and instead of hiring, it will have to furlough employees.

"That cupboard is bare. I can't avoid it this year," Comey said.

-- CNN's Deirdre Walsh and Evan Perez contributed to this report. To top of page

First Published: October 31, 2013: 7:15 AM ET


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Obamacare site outage resolved

obamacare website back

The data hub behind the Obamacare website went down on Tuesday night and was fully restored on Thursday morning.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

A networking problem crashed the Obamacare website on Tuesday evening, blocking users of the site from logging in and submitting new applications for the new health insurance exchanges.

For the 14 states and the District of Columbia that operate their own sites, service was restored on Wednesday morning.

But for the 36 states whose exchanges are run by the federal government, service didn't resume until Thursday morning.

At issue was a federal data hub, used by the state sites and the federal site, to verify applicants' income, citizenship and eligibility.

The hub is maintained by Terremark, a Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500) subsidiary contracted to provide technology behind the site.

"Verizon Terremark has successfully resolved their issue with the networking component overnight," said Brian Cook a spokesman for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

A similar outage had occurred on Sunday.

The latest outage stretched on Wednesday even as Health Secretary Kathleen Sebelius was grilled over broader site issues by members of a House committee.

"Hold me accountable for the debacle," she told them. She called using the site a "miserably frustrating" experience.

Since going live on October 1, major issues with HealthCare.gov have prevented people from registering and applying for coverage.

Sebelius said that by "the end of November, we are committed that the vast majority of users will be able to review their options, shop for plans, enroll in coverage without the problems way too many have been experiencing." To top of page

First Published: October 31, 2013: 9:33 AM ET


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Stocks fall on Fed hangover

S&P 500 10:21am

Click chart for more markets data.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Stocks fell modestly Thursday morning, one day after the Federal Reserve said that it will do exactly what the market wanted. The Fed will keep buying $85 billion a month in bonds.

The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all dipped after the announcement late Wednesday, coming off of all-time highs.

Related: Fear & Greed Index still shows greed

Investors around the globe also appear to be suffering from rally fatigue. European markets were mixed in afternoon trading and nearly all Asian markets ended in the red.

The Fed's bond buying program has been a catalyst for an epic stock market run this year, but investors now seem to need more compelling reasons to keep pushing stocks higher.

Some investors had hoped the Fed would mention what impact the recent government shutdown had on economic growth. If the Fed sounded more negative about the economy, that might have been interpreted as a sign that the central bank may keep buying bonds well into 2014.

Still, even though the last day of October looks more like a trick than a treat, the S&P 500 has rallied nearly 5% this month, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has run up more than 3%. It's been Rocktober as opposed to Shocktober.

Related: Are investors joining rally too late?

Facebook's reversal hurts Nasdaq: Facebook (FB, Fortune 500) faked out investors Wednesday night. The social media site's stock spiked 15% after hours when it announced that earnings and revenues easily beat forecasts thanks to strong mobile growth. But investors became spooked when the company said during its conference call that the number of teen users who were visiting the social networking site on a daily basis had fallen.

Facebook's stock fell in early morning trading.

China's Craigslist is booming: China's equivalent of Craigslist, 58.com (WUBA), debuted Thursday, and shares quickly shot up more than 40%.

Expedia's (EXPE) stock jumped more than 18% on better-than-expected earnings.

Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) reported a sharp drop in profits but the oil company's shares still rallied Thursday.

Estee Lauder (EL, Fortune 500)'s shares rose after the makeup company reported an uptick in third quarter sales.

AB InBev (BUD), the brewer of Anheuser Busch, reported Wednesday that sales and profit jumped in the third quarter. To top of page

First Published: October 31, 2013: 9:52 AM ET


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Bill Gross to 1%: We must pay more in taxes

bill gross letter

By implementing "more equitable tax reform," Gross argues the United States could improve its competitive position, and challenge more productive economies such as Germany and Canada.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

"Having gotten rich at the expense of labor, the guilt sets in and I begin to feel sorry for the less well-off," writes Gross, co-founder of investment firm Pimco and manager of the biggest bond fund in the world, in the opening of his latest monthly investment letter.

Gross usually devotes his outlook pieces to discussions of the bond market. And they are often littered with pop culture references. He didn't disappoint this month.

He compared those who complain about paying a greater percentage of their wealth in taxes to the Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) character Scrooge McDuck.

"It's time to kick out and share some of your good fortune by paying higher taxes and reforming them to favor economic growth and labor, as opposed to corporate profits and individual gazillions," Gross wrote.

Gross is at the very top of the ultra-rich group he is talking about. Forbes estimates his net worth at $2.2 billion, which would put him in the top 0.01%.

Gross said he and other top 1% earners need to recognize that they have had the "privilege of riding the credit wave and a credit boom for the past three decades. Paraphrasing President Obama's "you didn't build that" comment from the 2012 campaign, Gross reminds the rich "you did not create that wave. You rode it."

He's not the first billionaire to argue that the rich should pay more in taxes. Investor Warren Buffett has been doing so for the past few years.

Related: The most unequal place in America

But by implementing "more equitable tax reform," Gross said the United States could improve its competitive position, and challenge more productive economies such as Germany and Canada.

"Developed economies work best when inequality of incomes are at a minimum," he argued.

Another jab at Carl Icahn? Gross also slammed Corporate America for profiting at the expense of labor.

Instead of boosting their earnings by buying back stock or cutting expenses, Gross said companies need to be reinvesting in new plants and equipment.

He recalled his 2002 criticism of General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) for taking on too much short-term debt, and said another large company is growing its earnings and inflating its stock price by reducing expenses and buying back shares.

The jab at stock buybacks also serves as an indirect but obvious slight toward activist investor Carl Icahn, who has been pushing Appl (AAPL, Fortune 500)to buy back $150 billion of its own stock.

Last week, Gross picked a Twitter fight with Icahn, tweeting that "Icahn should leave #Apple alone & spend more time like Bill Gates," referring to the Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500)chairman who's now famous for his philanthropic efforts. "If #Icahn's so smart, use it to help people not yourself."

Related: How income inequality hurts America

He later added that "I should spend more TIME like Bill Gates too -- we all should. He and Melinda are great paragons."

But that didn't stop Icahn from shooting back on Twitter, telling Gross that "if you really want to do good, why not join http://givingpledge.org/ like Gates, I and many others have?" Icahn is referring to the effort by Gates, his wife Melinda and Buffett to get more wealthy individuals to donate a big chunk of their wealth to charitable and philanthropic causes.

Gross bashes the Fed too. Gross also likened a stock buyback to the Federal Reserve's massive bond buying programs that began in the aftermath of the financial crisis in an effort to stimulate the economy.

"The U.S. economy -- thanks to the Fed-- has been operating a $1 trillion share buyback program nearly every year since late 2008, buying up Treasuries but watching much of that money flow straight into risk assets and common stocks instead of productive plant and equipment," he said. "My goodness!"

Gross concluded that growth needs to come from investment and demand for actual products. He called on the Obama Administration, which has been campaigning to increase foreign investment in the United States, to keep asking Corporate America and the 1% to also invest more in the U.S.

"If there's not a profitable new "iGIZMO" or a dynamic biotechnological breakthrough worthy of investment, how about simply a joint effort between government and private enterprise in an infrastructure bank where our third world airports, third world city streets and third world water systems are modernized" Gross proposed. To top of page

First Published: October 31, 2013: 11:08 AM ET


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How to survive a merger

ceros merging

Simon Berg, left, in the New York City offices of the newly created Ceros.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Undaunted by those odds, Simon Berg set out last year to merge his online-marketing firm Ceros (whose client list included Virgin Atlantic, Lego, Nestle (NSRGF) and Sears (SHLD, Fortune 500)) with Crowd Fusion, the engineering powerhouse behind websites like TMZ.

Berg, who is CEO of the new company (also called Ceros), said the most challenging part of any merger is "the people involved, who all come with their own opinions, baggage and visions of the future." For entrepreneurs thinking of joining forces with another startup, here are three lessons Berg took from the experience:

1. Don't rush into it. "A big reason why so many mergers don't work is that top management on both sides plays its cards too close to the vest," said Berg. "Without openness and honesty beforehand, you can easily end up merging with a company you really know nothing about."

Related: Which social network is best for your business?

To prevent that, his top managers met with their Crowd Fusion counterparts for no-holds-barred discussions of their operations, hammering out plans and goals over nearly six months. "Done right, the due-diligence phase should be a lot like dating," Berg said. "Get to know each other gradually."

Berg said it's also important to look beyond "getting the deal done," and talk about what happens after. Before the two firms combined, "we made a list of objectives, including what we would do and when," he said. "We were about 85% agreed on the essentials before we signed the papers."

2. If you have to let people go, don't procrastinate. As usually happens, the post-merger Ceros had some staffers whose jobs overlapped or whose skills no longer fit. "It is awful laying people off," said Berg. "But the longer you put it off, the harder and more painful it will be for everyone."

Berg ultimately let more than a dozen employees from both companies go -- headcount is now about 30 -- including a few senior executives. He has no regrets. "People understand that, after a merger, things have changed," Berg said. "Having the right people in the right jobs makes the team stronger."

Related: What I look for in a new hire

3. Line up enough funding. "If you need funding from investors to finance your merger, the first number you pick will probably be too low," Berg said. "So estimate what it's likely to cost from start to finish, and then double that." Ceros' merger was even more expensive because Berg had to factor in the anticipated cost of designing and building a whole new cloud-based marketing platform.

Ceros had some heft behind it: Backers include two venture capital firms and Marc Andreessen and Mark Cuban, who have invested $2.2 million since mid-2012. But replacing the old technology with a new platform meant "we had no revenues for the second half of 2012. It was scary," Berg recalled. The payoff: Ceros is a far stronger and more visible presence in online marketing and branding than the old Ceros or Crowd Fusion ever was, and Berg said revenues have skyrocketed this year. To top of page

First Published: October 31, 2013: 7:13 AM ET


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Don't freak out about Facebook's 'teen problem'

facebook teen usage

Investors sent shares Facebook lower after the company discussed teenagers' use of the site.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

"We did see a decrease in [teenage] daily users [during the quarter], especially younger teens," Facebook chief financial officer David Ebersman said during the company's third-quarter earnings call on Wednesday. The comments were surprising given that just last quarter, CEO Mark Zuckerberg said reports of declining teen usage were "just not true."

Investors weren't pleased, erasing a big 15% gain they had given Facebook's stock before the company disclosed the teen usage problem. But stock analysts downplayed the issue.

That's because measuring Facebook activity on a daily basis isn't the best way to capture trends on the social network. Instead, analysts look at monthly active users for a more accurate picture -- and Ebersman said that teens are still checking in with Facebook each month at a steady rate.

Related story: Which social network is best for your business?

J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth stressed that any declining usage appears to be among a small, specific group.

"We think the lower daily usage is currently limited to a small portion of younger teens, likely ages 13-15, that may be using additional services such as Facebook-owned Instagram, Snapchat, and Whats App," Anmuth wrote.

What's more, Facebook has the ability to recapture those young users. The company is reportedly working on an update to its messaging app, and he thinks Facebook is investing in improving those types of products "to address teenage usage specifically."

Given that potential and Facebook's overall financial strength, Anmuth recommended that clients buy Facebook (FB, Fortune 500)while the stock is down.

Topeka Capital Markets analyst Victor Anthony called the stock pullback "excessive."

Facebook's stock rebounded a bit midday Thursday, with shares rising 3% after falling by as much as 5% earlier in the day.

Investors had also punished the stock after Facebook said it isn't planning to ramp up the number of ads in users' news feeds.

But Anthony approved of Facebook's decision, calling it an effort "to ensure a quality user experience" -- after all, if users become overwhelmed with ads and stop using the site, that isn't good for either the company or the advertisers.

Overall, Anthony called the company's financial results "impressive" and pointed out that they were "meaningfully above" Wall Street's already high expectations. He raised his price target on the stock to $63 from $60. To top of page

First Published: October 31, 2013: 12:14 PM ET


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Solid earnings and China data lift stocks

Written By limadu on Kamis, 24 Oktober 2013 | 23.53

u.s. stocks, dow

Click the chart for more stock market data.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

The Dow Jones industrial average, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were modestly higher in afternoon trading.

In a sign that manufacturing is improving in the world's second largest economy, Chinese factory activity hit a 7-month high in October. The positive data follows last week's upbeat report that showed China's economy great 7.8% during the third quarter.

A big day for earnings: Dow components 3M (MMM, Fortune 500) and AT&T (T, Fortune 500) reported better-than-expected earnings. But shares of Ma Bell were down 1% while 3M rose slightly.

Ford (F, Fortune 500) shares rallied after the automaker raised guidance and released quarterly earnings and revenue that topped forecasts. Rival GM (GM, Fortune 500) rose on the news as well. Investors were particularly encouraged by the fact that Ford once again trimmed its ongoing losses in Europe and raised its earnings guidance.

"Second consecutive upside surprise from Europe at Ford," said StockTwits user retail_guru. "Faster improvement = unqualified great news $F."

On Ford's earnings call with analysts, CEO Alan Mulally also tried to ease concerns that he may leave the automaker to take the top job at Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500).

PulteGroup (PHA) shares were also on the rise after the homebuilder's earnings and revenue topped forecasts.

Southwest Airlines (LUV, Fortune 500) gained ground after the discount airline reported solid earnings thanks to higher airfares and declining fuel costs. Southwest was optimistic about the current quarter, highlighting that bookings for November and December are strong.

On the downside, shares of Symantec (SYMC, Fortune 500) got hammered after the company reported earnings and sales that fell short of estimates, and slashed its guidance. The chairman of StockTwits noted that Symantec has not been as adept as Adobe (ADBE) in adapting to new trends.

"$SYMC thank goodness i gave up on this a few weeks ago...have not made the $ADBE like transition to mobile and the cloud...ugh," said howardlindzon.

Dow Chemical (DOW, Fortune 500) shares were also under pressure after the company's earnings fell short.

Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500), Zynga (ZNGA) and Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) are due to report results in the afternoon.

Related: Fear & Greed Index still shows greed

Meanwhile, shares of Appl (AAPL, Fortune 500)moved higher following the news that activist investor Carl Icahn sent a letter to CEO Tim Cook reiterating his push for a big share buyback. Icahn said he boosted his stake in the company to 4.73 million shares, and remains convinced that apple should launch a $150 billion buyback program.

Traders seemed to be on board with Icahn, and are looking forward to Apple's earnings next week.

"$AAPL starting to move like it used to with Icahn calling buyback a "no brainer," said StkCon. "Now, let's hope for good earnings!"

Some traders had lofty predictions.

"$AAPL With the blow out earnings it will rocket to $600.00 by Christmas," predicted fishobass182.

"$AAPL I love being part of history, a year from now will look back and say wow what an epic run post/ after earnings that was. Bullish," said win2betmore. To top of page

First Published: October 24, 2013: 9:54 AM ET


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Spain joins bumpy European recovery

LONDON (CNNMoney)

Unemployment in the eurozone's fourth-biggest economy fell in the third quarter, according to figures published Thursday. That followed a report from the Bank of Spain Wednesday predicting a return to economic growth in the quarter after a recession lasting two years.

The government is due to publish its latest GDP numbers next week.

Improvement in Spain's jobs market is crucial to a broader recovery and Thursday's figures show the country's unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in a year.

But with just under 26% of the workforce -- and more than half of all young people -- still without a job, it remains painfully high.

Related: Spain's austerity pain

Spain was hit hard by the financial crisis after a housing bubble burst and many of its banks required hefty bailouts.

Saddled with high debt and borrowing costs, it began a program of austerity to control its budget deficit and structural reforms aimed at improving productivity. Exports have recovered as a result, helping drive the return to growth, but economists say the country has some way to go.

Ben May from Capital Economics said Spain's prospects had improved considerably over the past year but domestic demand remained weak.

"Spain is not out of the woods just yet," said May. He expects GDP will shrink by about 0.5% in 2014.

Related: How sick are Europe's banks? Wait and see

The cautious tone applies to Europe too.

The eurozone emerged from a prolonged recession earlier this year but growth remains anemic and uneven. After edging higher for months, business activity slipped back in October, according to a survey of purchasing managers.

The fragility of the region is a point European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has reinforced recently. This month he said the ECB stood ready to cut rates or pump more cheap cash into the economy if needed to keep it on course.

Weak European banks, and uncertainty about the level of risk they're still carrying, is stifling lending and investment in parts of the eurozone.

The ECB announced a 12-month health check on 128 of the region's banks Wednesday, with the aim of restoring confidence and boosting growth. To top of page

First Published: October 24, 2013: 10:29 AM ET


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Americans lacking in basic skills

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

American adult proficiency in literacy, numeracy and problem solving ranks as some of the lowest among developed countries, despite a relatively high level of education, according to a recent survey.

In literacy, the United States came in 9th out of 13 industrialized countries surveyed, according to a report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

In problem solving America ranked 8th, right below average. And Americans are particularly bad at math, coming in third from last in the numeracy rankings.

"It's distressing to see we are not performing well," said Mary Alice McCarthy, a senior policy analyst at the New America Foundation. "Young people are moving into adulthood and they do not have the necessary skills."

This comes despite the fact that the number of years Americans are expected to spend in school -- 17.1 -- is just below the OECD average of 17.5 years, and above the 16.6 years expected in the U.K. and the 16.2 years in Japan.

Related: Why young people are saying 'no' to the workforce

McCarthy said one thing that was particularly problematic is that young people in the United States are not showing a much higher level of skill than older people, despite the fact that the jobs of tomorrow will require a greater degree of knowledge.

The report attempted to measure the reading, math and problem solving skills in real world situations of over 5,000 Americans between the ages of 16 and 65.

It noted that a lack of these skills translated into real life hardships, and they were especially pronounced in America. In the United States, the odds of being in poor health are four times greater for low-skilled adults than for those with the highest proficiency -- double the average of other countries in the study.

One of the reasons America may not have scored so high is immigration, said William Thorn, a senior analyst in the education division at OECD. Immigrants tend to have fewer skills, and can bring down the average.

As with income inequality, the skills disparity was also high in the United States, said Thorn, with a big discrepancy between the good and poor performers.

Yet having a high skill set doesn't necessarily translate into a more productive economy or greater economic output. After all, Japan topped the list in both reading and math yet hardly has a red hot economy.

"The skills of a population are not entirely summarized by literacy, numbers and problem solving," said Thorn.

Related: 10 hard-to-fill jobs

Still, if we want to right the situation, grades K-12 seem to be the place to start -- American college students tended to have skills more on par with their international peers.

There are no shortage of ideas on how to make America's schools better. Sandra Stotsky, a retired education professor at the University of Arkansas' Department of Education Reform, thinks students need to be held more accountable. There needs to be less testing throughout the year, but more high-stakes testing at crucial times. If students don't pass the test, they don't move on to the next grade.

Stotsky also thinks students need more options to go into the trades in high school instead of a relentless focus on sending kids to college, especially when they are not prepared.

Finally, a greater cultural emphasis on reading would do wonders, Stotsky said.

"Our students spend an enormous amount of time watching TV and playing video games," she said. "How can we expect high levels of literacy from people who don't read?"

Other ways to boost the U.S. skill set include greater access to early childhood education and more adult education programs targeting low-skilled workers, said New America's McCarthy. To top of page

First Published: October 24, 2013: 7:02 AM ET


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VW said to help union organize its plant

volkswagen plant chattanooga

A worker at VW's sole U.S. plant in Chattanooga, Tenn.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

And some say Volkswagen management is encouraging, rather than discouraging, the UAW.

The UAW says it has union cards signed by a majority of the plant's hourly workers, a key step toward union representation. Workers at the VW plant make roughly $19 an hour compared with about $26 to $28 an hour for veteran hourly workers at the Detroit automakers, although the union's new hires are making closer to $17.

Why would Volkswagen management support unions?

VW says it wants German-style "works council" at the plant to get employees input. The councils meet on issues such as work rule disputes in order to improve plant efficiency.

VW, which has the best profit margins of any global automaker, has the works councils at more than 100 plants around the globe -- all except those in China and its sole U.S. factory.

But U.S. labor law makes it difficult to set up such councils without participation by a union.

Related: VW heading for a profit speed bump?

Anti-union critics say VW is illegally pressuring employees to accept a union many don't want. They also worry that a unionized plant would hurt bids to attract other automakers to Tennessee.

The National Right to Work Foundation, a leading anti-union group, has filed a complaint with the National Labor Relations Board about VW's efforts.

"They're worried about them getting a foot in the door," said Gary Chaison, professor of labor relations at Clark University. "Every time you get a large organizing campaign that is successful, it inspires more organizing."

VW unveils 'world's most efficient car

VW is somewhat less inclined to be anti-union than the typical U.S. company. Half its board is made up of employee representatives, mostly from Germany's powerful trade unions.

Still, the company denies it is backing the union effort, despite what critics fear.

"I think we've been very clear that that process needs to run its course, that no management decision has been made and that it may or may not conclude with formal, third-party representation," said Jon Browning, VW's U.S. CEO on a recent call with analysts.

UAW's membership has declined for decades and union leadership has made organizing the factories of Japanese and European automakers their top priority. So far, the efforts have all been unsuccessful. To top of page

First Published: October 24, 2013: 7:05 AM ET


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Stocks poised for early gain on China data

sp 500 futures 715

Click on chart to track premarkets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

U.S. stock futures were modestly higher ahead of the opening bell.

Chinese factory activity hit a 7-month high in October, helping European stocks advance in morning trade.

Investors will also get updates on the U.S. economy Thursday, with the government's weekly report on initial jobless claims due at 8:30 a.m. ET, and Census Bureau data on new home sales at 10 a.m. ET.

A big day for earnings: Ford (F, Fortune 500) shares rallied after the automaker raised guidance and released quarterly earnings and revenue that topped forecasts.

On the downside, shares of Symantec (SYMC, Fortune 500) got hammered after the company reported earnings and sales that fell short of estimates, and slashed its guidance. Dow Chemical (DOW, Fortune 500) shares were also under pressure after the company's earnings fell short.

Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500), Zynga (ZNGA) and Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) are up in the afternoon.

Related: Fear & Greed Index: still greedy

U.S. stocks fell slightly Wednesday, coming off record highs as a dour outlook from Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) knocked sentiment.

Asian markets ended mixed, with the Nikkei adding 0.4% as corporate earnings rolled in. Rising money market rates in China put a pinch on the Shanghai Composite, which declined 0.9%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.7%. To top of page

First Published: October 24, 2013: 5:08 AM ET


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Pensions ask retirees to pay back tens of thousands

carole grant pension recoupment

Carole Grant, 75, has been told she owes almost $61,000 for nearly 20 years of pension overpayments.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

For retirees, it can mean owing tens of thousands of dollars. And with little warning, their pension checks are being slashed to cover their debt.

In April 2011, New Jersey resident Carol Montague received a letter from American Water Works Co.'s pension plan saying it had overpaid her for more than five years and wanted its money back -- plus interest. Montague, now 67, was told she owed roughly $45,000.

Two weeks later, Montague's pension benefits dropped from $1,246 to around $325 a month, or half what she should have been paid all along. The plan takes out roughly $300 a month in order to pay itself back.

Once Montague's health care premium is deducted, her monthly pension check shrinks to less than $25. She gets another $1,200 a month from Social Security, but it's not enough. So, in addition to her part-time job as a school crossing guard, she is working as a salesperson at Macy's.

So far, Montague has repaid almost $9,000 -- calculations show that she won't repay her debt in full until 2024.

Share your story: Were you overpaid by your pension plan?

American Water said Montague signed a document verifying the correct pension amount and that they are legally allowed to collect any overpayment, with interest, to protect the viability of the pension fund. Montague acknowledges she made a mistake, but didn't think she needed to confirm that her benefits matched the amount in the letter she had signed almost a year before she retired.

"I put it away in a steel box. I never looked at it again. It was stupid on my part," she said. "But it took (almost) six years for them to find out they overpaid me?"

With the help of the Mid-Atlantic Pension Counseling Project, a government-sponsored program, she has appealed to the pension plan to waive the interest, as well as ease some of the overpayment burden. But the plan has refused.

As pensions face increased financial scrutiny -- and shrinking funds -- pension counseling programs are seeing even more cases like Montague's.

This year, nearly 600 retired metal workers and their spouses are facing these so-called recoupment demands from the Sheet Metal Workers Local Union No. 73 Pension Fund, based outside of Chicago.

Related: Will your congressman retire richer than you?

In a letter sent to the pension recipients in May, the fund said a 2010 audit found that certain pensions were calculated incorrectly from 1974 to 2004, resulting in more than $5 million in overpayments, according to an IRS filing. The fund is now demanding that the retirees pay back decades worth of mistakes, including interest based on the plan's rates of return.

In July, the pension fund reduced hundreds of checks to the proper payment amount and then again, to make up for the overpayments, often by as much as 25%.

Since the pension fund is forecasting that many of the retirees will die before their debts are repaid, it is asking many of them to make large upfront payments.

It's unclear why the pension fund, which did not respond to requests for comment, waited several years to make the adjustments.

Carole Grant, 75, was told by the sheet metal worker's plan that she owed almost $61,000 (roughly half of which was interest) for nearly 20 years of overpayments on the spousal benefits she received from her deceased husband's pension. Her monthly benefit of $394 should have actually been $249, the pension fund said.

Related: Are you saving enough for retirement?

As a result, she's been asked to make an upfront payment of $54,000 and her check has been reduced to $187 a month. While she has other sources of income, she doesn't think she should have to turn over her retirement savings.

"I don't feel that I should be penalized for the mistakes that they made," she said.

Karen Ferguson, director of the Pension Rights Center, a Washington D.C.-based advocacy group, said that, in most cases, retirees have no idea they are being overpaid since "the way a benefit is figured in a typical pension plan is impossible for an ordinary person to fathom."

She called the sheet metal workers case the "most egregious" she's seen, underscoring the need for federal regulations, such as imposing a statute of limitations and limiting how dramatically a pension check can be reduced. She also said many retirees don't realize that plans rarely take legal actions to recover the lump sums.

Money 101: Planning for retirement

While some of the retired sheet metal workers have been able to get their debts forgiven or reduced by filing "hardship waivers," many have had appeals denied, said Tim Kelly, an attorney representing some of the retirees.

One of his clients, 63-year-old Ed Cochran, has received a disability pension since 1995 and was told he owes the fund nearly $100,000, $42,464 of which is interest. His monthly checks had included an excess $262 a month.

Cochran paid years' worth of income taxes and child support based on the amounts he received. And he's heard of many retirees in worse financial shape than him.

"There are so many other older retirees who didn't plan for rainy days," Cochran said. "This is all they have."

Have you received a recoupment demand? Visit the Pension Rights Center website for advice or for pension counseling referrals. To top of page

First Published: October 24, 2013: 6:59 AM ET


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Mulally staying at Ford - for now

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

In a call with analysts to discuss Ford's strong third-quarter results, the very first question was about talk in the media that Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) wants Mulally to replace outgoing CEO Steve Ballmer. Mulally answered that his plans to stay at Ford until "at least 2014" haven't changed.

"I'm clearly excited and honored to continue to serve Ford," he said.

But when asked by a reporter if he had talked to Microsoft, he refused to answer the question, saying he would not comment on speculation. When asked what the chances were that he'd stay at Ford beyond 2014, all he would say was "our plan has not changed."

Ballmer, in announcing his retirement In August, said he would leave within the next 12 months. So Mulally's previously stated departure plan doesn't necessarily rule out his moving to the software maker.

Related: Fortune's Brainstorm podcast with Alan Mulally

Last year, when Ford disclosed Mulally's plans to stay through 2014, it named Mark Fields as president, a position that hadn't previously been filled. He is seen as the likely successor to the 68-year old Mulally.

Mulally has been Ford (F, Fortune 500) CEO since 2006, joining the company from the commercial aircraft unit of Boeing (BA, Fortune 500). He is widely credited with helping Ford avoid bankruptcy and the federal bailout that rivals General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) and Chrysler Group endured in 2009. Under his leadership, Ford recaptured the No. 2 spot in U.S. car sales from Japanese rival Toyota (TM).

Related: 8 reasons why Mulally is better for Motown than Microsoft

Ford shares were higher in Thursday trading after it reported a record third-quarter pretax profit of $2.6 billion, up 19% from a year earlier. Revenue was up 12% on an increase in the number of vehicles sold worldwide.

The company was able to trim its ongoing losses in Europe and raise its earnings guidance. It did report a drop in net income, but that was due to severance costs from plant closings in Europe and a charge for a shift in white-collar pension plans. To top of page

First Published: October 24, 2013: 10:35 AM ET


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Can you make money and feel good about it?

health impact investing

Healthcare clinics, along with education and housing projects, are commonly supported by impact investors.

LONDON (CNNMoney)

Funds that promise to put money to work for the good of society are growing fast, as investors look for alternatives to traditional assets.

So how does it work? Individuals invest in funds or organizations with a specific social or environmental purpose, such as building schools, hospitals or affordable housing - and they're rewarded with a financial return.

Fund managers say the unique selling point of this kind of investing is an intentional, measurable social benefit. This sets impact investing apart from its older cousins -- ethical or socially responsible investing, which try to avoid doing harm by excluding tobacco or arms companies from their portfolios.

And it appears to be catching on.

JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500), which invest in several funds dedicated to social causes, says its clients weren't aware of impact investing just three years ago.

Now they're coming to the bank to pump money into socially conscious investment vehicles. A survey by the firm found investors plan to commit $9 billion this year.

World leaders are also throwing their weight behind the sector, agreeing at a G8 summit this year to create a task force aimed at expanding the market.

The global financial meltdown, financial scams and Wall Street misconduct have left many people disillusioned with traditional investments.

And growing awareness of inequality and diminishing natural resources is also fueling a hunger to do good with finance, particularly among young people.

Related: Find out if a company shares your values

So what about the return on your investment?

The market is still in its infancy and tends to be weighted to private equity or longer-term funds, meaning lots of projects haven't yet had time to bear fruit.

Counting the number of jobs supported by a loan, or the amount of small businesses helped by micro-finance is straightforward.

Self-proclaimed "profit with purpose" private equity firm LeapFrog Investments says 11 million people have benefited from its investments in emerging markets.

Calculating the longer-term social impact, such as a drop in crime or reduced welfare dependency, is much harder.

Social impact bonds are designed to show more clearly how finance can generate lasting benefits.

Launched three years ago in the U.K., and now also available in the U.S., Australia and Canada, this type of bond has been used to fund school mentors, for example. It pays out if truancy rates fall.

Related: Rebalance your portfolio or not?

Getting involved is getting easier, for large and small players alike.

The Calvert Foundation offers impact investments from just $20. The group, which uses most of its capital to support projects in the U.S., has been paying returns to investors for years.

Its one-year fixed income product currently pays 0.5%. This rises to 1% over 3 years, and 3% on a 10-year term.

It won't make you rich, but beats parking money in the bank.

Investments up to $1,000 can be made via MicroPlace, an online brokerage platform for social investing, where organizations seek backers for a variety of causes.

Calvert Foundation chief executive Jennifer Pryce says investors still need to do their homework, as fund managers are increasingly touting social investments without measurable benefit.

"They see it as a way to grow their business, by saying they do impact investing," she said. To top of page

First Published: October 24, 2013: 8:26 AM ET


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Icahn ups stake in Apple, demands $150 billion buyback

carl icahn shareholder website

Carl Icahn has written a letter to Apple CEO Tim Cook, asking the company to buy back $150 billion of its own stock.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

His idea: Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) shares are extremely undervalued, so now's the time for the company to invest in itself -- and increase the value of its investors' stock holdings.

Icahn claims he upped his stake in Apple by 22% over the past month to 4.7 million shares. That's only about 0.5% of the company, but at a value of nearly $2.5 billion, it's a big enough stake to draw attention.

Icahn began his crusade in late September over dinner with Cook. In his letter, posted on Icahn's website, The Shareholder's Square Table, he tries to convince Cook that the company should tap into its massive, $147 billion cash reserves to take advantage of what he portrays as a tiny window of opportunity.

"Irrational undervaluation as dramatic as this is often a short term anomaly," Icahn wrote. "The timing for a larger buyback is still ripe, but the opportunity will not last forever."

Related story: Icahn demands $150 billion from Apple

To build his case that Apple's shares are undervalued by Wall Street, Icahn notes that the company's shares aren't keeping up with the market as a whole. While the S&P 500 trades at about 14 times the value of estimated future company earnings, Apple trades at just 9 times analysts' estimates, Icahn said.

"With such an enormous valuation gap and such a massive amount of cash on the balance sheet, we find it difficult to imagine why the board would not move more aggressively to buy back stock," he wrote..

To prove he believes the move would benefit investors in the long run, Icahn said he would hold back his shares from any buyback program. In his view, the value of Apple shares could more than double to $1,250 within three years.

Apple didn't respond to requests for comment. Although Apple shares rose slightly on Thursday, they seemed little affected by the news. To top of page

First Published: October 24, 2013: 11:44 AM ET


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Tesla shares hit a speed bump

tesla chart

Click for more data on Tesla.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Shares of the electric car maker have tumbled 10% over the past three days, though it regained some ground early Thursday.

But before you shed a tear for Elon Musk, consider this: Tesla (TSLA) shares are still up more than 380% so far this year.

"Tesla has had a spectacular run and is a volatile stock," said Efraim Levy, equity analyst at S&P Capital IQ. "Sentiment can change on a dime, whether it's good news or bad news."

This week's selling has been largely attributed to a report in a German magazine that cast doubt on Tesla's European expansion plans. Concerns about a potential safety probe have also weighed on the stock since a Model S caught fire in an accident earlier this month. The debut of BMW's electric vehicle this week didn't help.

But analysts say the stock's correction has more to do with a shift in market psychology than any real change in the outlook for Tesla.

"It's not fundamentally driven," said Takuo Katayama, an auto industry analyst at Daiwa Capital Markets. "I think it's profit taking."

There has been a flurry of research published this week on Tesla, which may have also provided an excuse for investors to take profits.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which maintains a $45 price target for the stock, was by far the most bearish.

On the other end of the spectrum, Wedbush Securities upgraded Tesla this week to "outperform," with a price target of $240 per share.

The stock currently trades at around $165.

It seems safe to say Tesla's stock performance will remain volatile as investors wait for the company's third quarter earnings report on Nov 5.

The company is expected to report earnings of 11 cents per share, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

Related: Is Tesla a trap for small investors?

That would mark the third profitable quarter in Tesla's 10-year history. It would also be up from a loss of 92 cents in the same period last year.

But revenue growth is expected to surge nearly tenfold to $535 million in the quarter.

The results should give investors something more tangible to chew on as they debate what Tesla is worth.

The stock currently trades at more than 90 times next year's earnings estimates, which is rich by any measure.

Tesla bulls say the valuation is based on the potential Tesla has to revolutionize the industry and become a full scale automaker in the future. But bears argue that the stock has gotten ahead of itself and is highly speculative for a company that plans to sell only 21,000 Model S cars this year. To top of page

First Published: October 24, 2013: 10:10 AM ET


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Goldman Sachs posts big revenue drop

Written By limadu on Kamis, 17 Oktober 2013 | 23.53

goldman sachs nyse

Goldman Sachs' bond trading unit took a big hit in the third quarter, pushing down the bank's revenues.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Goldman's revenues were down 22% from the second quarter and 20% compared to a year ago. Revenues also missed Wall Street's forecasts.

Shares of Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) dropped more than 2% Thursday.

"The third quarter's results reflected a period of slow client activity," said CEO Lloyd Blankfein in a statement. Blankfein said the bank expected things to pick up in the fourth quarter.

Blankfein, who is currently the chairman of the Financial Services Forum, a trade group that represents bank chiefs, has also been extremely vocal about the dysfunction in Washington over the past month. Even though a deal was reached Wednesday night to avoid a potential default by the U.S. Treasury, Blankfein hinted to lawmakers that a permanent fix to the nation's debt problem is still needed.

"As longer term U.S. budget issues are resolved, we could see an improvement in corporate and investor sentiment that would help lay the basis for a more sustained recovery," Blankfein added in the statement.

Related: Bank of America swings to a profit

So far this earnings season, most banks have pointed to the overall drop in both mortgage lending and bond trading for weaker than expected results. Expectations that the Fed might cut back its bond buying program caused a sharp rise in interest rates over the summer, hitting the fixed income market and demand for home loans, particularly refinancings.

Goldman Sachs does not originate consumer mortgages, but bond trading is a huge part of its business. And revenue in its bond trading unit plunged 44% from a year ago.

CFO Harvey Schwartz repeatedly said he was "not happy with the results" during a conference call Thursday morning, but he was quick to cite market conditions as one of the key reasons for the revenue drop.

Related: Citigroup's weak earnings disappoint

Cutting compensation: Goldman didn't make any cuts to its headcount, but the bank did slash overall compensation, the bank's single biggest expense, by roughly 5% for the first nine months of 2013 compared to the same period in 2012. Those cost cuts were one of the key profit drivers in the quarter.

Average compensation per employee dropped to about $319,755 for the first three quarters of 2013.

Still, Schwartz told investors that better days for the bank could lie ahead. He said its investment banking backlog is the largest in five years. Yet, he admitted that this might not translate into huge deals immediately. "It's not one of these things that turns on and off," Schwartz said. "[CEOs] need a backdrop in which they feel confidence."

The pipeline is particularly ripe on the "equity underwriting" side of the business, Schwartz noted. Goldman Sachs landed the coveted advisory spot for Twitter's initial public offering, which is expected to come to market in the next few weeks.

The key numbers: Goldman generated $2.88 a share in profits on $6.72 billion of revenues. Analysts had expected the bank to earn $2.45 per share on $7.2 billion of revenue.

Goldman's stock is up 27% so far in 2013 but there are growing concerns about whether Wall Street firms will continue to rally if interest rates rise much further.

Goldman is the latest big bank to report earnings in what's been a mediocre quarter so far. JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) have reported mixed results and outlooks. Investors did cheer earnings from Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) on Wednesday though. Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) is the last of the major financial firms to report its results. It will release its earnings on Friday. To top of page

First Published: October 17, 2013: 8:21 AM ET


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Windows 8.1's little changes are a huge improvement

microsoft skydive

The Windows 8.1 update doesn't run away from last year's drastic redesign. It's doing the opposite.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

On paper, the list of changes that Microsoft made to Windows 8.1 don't seem all that major. No, the app tiles aren't gone. Yes, the Start button is back, but not exactly as you remember it.

But it isn't until you actually start using the latest version of Windows that you can appreciate the big benefits of little tweaks.

Start button: The return of the Start button to its rightful spot on the desktop taskbar is a perfect example.

The Start button's main function in Windows 8.1 is actually to call up the Start screen (the series of app tiles that Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) calls "Modern UI," which was introduced in Windows 8) -- not the labyrinth of nested menus that it used to hide. But when you're in desktop mode and you click the Start button, it won't take you completely out of the desktop. Instead, a semi-transparent version of the Modern UI will float on top of the desktop, allowing you to choose an app.

That feature also allows you to control how you organize the Start screen. You can quickly lump together all the icons for your desktop apps in the Modern UI and label them as such.

In other words, the new Start button brings back all the functionality of the Start button from Windows 7, but with the look and feel of the more modern Windows 8.1.

Related story: 3 ways to improve Apple's Mac OS X

Snap view: The biggest change in Windows 8.1 is the expansion of the "snap view" feature that enables multiple apps on the screen at the same time.

Windows 8.1 will let you run up to eight apps side by side -- up from just two in Windows 8. (That's provided you have two 2560x1600 resolution monitors. On a smaller device like the Surface, you can still only have two.)

Unlike Windows 8, which ran the second app in snap view as a more limited widget in a small strip of the screen, Windows 8.1 lets users decide how much space each app takes up on the screen -- half? a third? a quarter? Your call!

To make Windows 8.1 users feel less locked into a single app, snap view will automatically launch in certain situations. For example, if you're reading an email and you click on a link, you will no longer exit the email app and go into the browser. Instead, the screen will automatically split itself into two (if it isn't already), and Internet Explorer will pop up right next to your email app. You can even rearrange panes and drag and drop files between them as easily as you would two windows in desktop mode.

Related story: Windows 8 fixes are on the way

App improvements: Microsoft has put in a lot of work into more tightly integrating its own services throughout Windows 8.1.

For example, if you search for a musician using the Bing search app, links and play buttons to that artist's songs and albums will be integrated into the results.

When you receive a Skype call and your computer is locked, you will be able to answer the call without having to first unlock your computer.

And most importantly, the SkyDrive cloud storage service will be more tightly woven into Windows 8.1. SkyDrive won't just make your cloud files look and feel native inside Windows, but it will also sync all your Windows and app settings on the fly, so that you don't have to reconfigure every Windows 8.1 device you use.

Related story: Analyst wants Microsoft to break up

Even littler things: It's not just tweaks to big conceptual ideas that make Windows 8.1 promising. Microsoft paid attention to little technical details as well.

When you have more than one monitor, for instance, Windows 8.1 will make sure you can independently adjust scaling for each one so that text, icons and other visual elements are optimally sized and proportioned on each display. (This was a major problem when using the Surface Pro with an external monitor.)

Another tiny fix that goes a long way is how the Start Screen organization process has been cleaned up. Being able to name groups of tiles gives the screen an added sense of order. Instead of pinning every newly installed app to the Start Screen, Windows 8.1 now just adds new apps to a larger list of apps one menu level below. That helps cut down on the chaos of the Start Screen, making it just about the apps that matter to the user.

And having the ability to move entire groups of tiles at once -- as opposed to one by one -- eliminates a tedious process of personalizing the Start Screen.

No going back to the drawing board: Before Microsoft first pulled the cover off of Windows 8.1 in May, there were claims that negative feedback and poor sales of Windows 8 had forced the company to rethink its strategy and largely abandon its futuristic overhaul of Windows. That couldn't be further from the truth.

With Windows 8.1, Microsoft is slowly pushing us deeper into its Modern UI. Many of the new tweaks to Windows exist to make the Modern UI more enticing as the primary mode of computing.

Microsoft's execution of its PC/tablet hybrid operating system concept still isn't flawless, but its patience in adhering to its vision is commendable. By addressing some of Windows 8's more problematic aspects with subtle, iterative improvements, Microsoft is slowly transitioning its user base to this radical new mode of computing.

That not only makes Windows 8.1 a promising upgrade, but it may go a long way towards validating Microsoft's somewhat risky strategy. To top of page

First Published: October 17, 2013: 9:13 AM ET


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This just in: Congress votes to do its job

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

What those negotiations can accomplish was not at all clear on Thursday.

Expectations for any large, long-range deal are low. And experts are not wildly optimistic lawmakers will successfully deal with shorter-term budget decisions either.

"Because the deal does not address any of the underlying policy differences between the two parties, Washington will simply barrel toward a new set of deadlines no better prepared for compromise than it was this time around," said Sean West, U.S. policy director for the Eurasia Group.

Related: Who owns U.S. debt?

The deal doesn't require anything specific of budget negotiators other than to wrap up talks by December 13, and to not use the talks as a vehicle for further debt ceiling increases.

The most immediate decision: What to do about the across-the-board spending cuts known as the sequester, and how to fund the government for the rest of fiscal year 2014? The deal only provides funding through mid-January.

If lawmakers don't renegotiate the sequester, which is widely acknowledged to be a ham-fisted way to reduce deficits, funding will automatically be cut by an additional $19 billion on January 15 on top of the cuts already made this year.

Of course, lawmakers haven't been able to agree how to replace the sequester since it was first created as a cudgel in 2011.

Republicans want to lessen the cuts for defense and instead cut non-defense programs more deeply -- a nonstarter for Democrats.

Democrats want higher 2014 funding levels than called for under sequestration and want to replace them with longer term budget savings from spending cuts and tax increases -- a nonstarter for Republicans.

These disagreements bleed into general discussions about funding the government for 2014. If Congress fails to do so by January 15, another government shutdown will occur.

More broadly, people in both parties acknowledge that tax reform and entitlement reform will help close the country's long-term shortfalls and help boost the economy over time. They just disagree vehemently about how to go about it.

And here's the thing: 2014 is a midterm election year for Congress. The voting public never loves hearing that benefits may be cut and taxes increased. Nor is it clear that hardliners in either party are in a negotiating mood.

Still, there's a chance something longer term comes out of the budget conference, which will be headed by Republican Paul Ryan of the House and Democrat Patty Murray of the Senate.

"I hold out some hope that a combination of tax reform and minor entitlement reforms can emerge. I have much more optimism now that it is in the hands of Ryan and Murray," said Steve Bell, senior director of the Bipartisan Policy Center's Economic Policy Project.

His colleague, William Hoagland, is also hopeful but not quite as optimistic. Maybe the committee will net some minor deficit reduction, said Hoagland, a senior vice president at the center. But he's not holding his breath. "You can lead a horse to water but you cannot make him drink."

Longtime budget expert Stan Collender, a former Democratic staffer in Congress, is not hopeful at all. "They haven't done anything in two years. Why does anyone think anything can happen in a few months?"

As for the lead negotiators? Put them down as officially hopeful.

"We recognize ... the challenges we face in reaching an agreement. But we want to find common ground and work toward a bipartisan deal. We intend to focus on what we can achieve," Ryan and Murray said in a joint statement after the deal passed the House.

The two were scheduled to have breakfast on Thursday. To top of page

First Published: October 17, 2013: 7:07 AM ET


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70,000 federal workers filed for unemployment

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

About 70,000 federal workers filed for unemployment benefits the first week of October, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The shutdown began Oct. 1 and lasted 16 days, putting thousands of federal employees temporarily out of work and without a paycheck.

Many were allowed to file for unemployment benefits during that time, but now that Congress has agreed to grant their pay retroactively, most states will ask these workers to repay the money later.

This isn't the first time furloughed workers had to return their unemployment checks. During the government shutdown in 1995 and 1996, state agencies also tried to recoup the overpaid funds.

Related: Furloughed workers face unemployment claim mess

The Department of Labor's report doesn't cover the entire shutdown period yet. But CNNMoney obtained numbers separately from several states, showing federal workers filed a total of 20,000 claims in Maryland, 16,000 claims in Washington D.C., 7,600 claims in Pennsylvania and around 6,000 in Virginia during the 16-day shutdown. Even though the shutdown has ended, more claims could still be submitted.

The report also shows the shutdown temporarily drove unemployment claims higher among the broader population. First-time claims spiked to 373,000 two weeks ago, and then fell back to 358,000 last week. The Department of Labor attributed part of the spike to the shutdown, but also indicated a large part of the increase was due to processing delays in California. The state recently updated its computer systems.

Related: Glitch delays checks for 80,000 jobless Californians

The initial claims report took on increased importance as a measure of the strength of the job market recently, as it was one of few government reports uninterrupted by the shutdown.

The Department of Labor still has not released its monthly jobs report for September -- a key indicator that tallies the number of jobs created and calculates the nation's unemployment rate. The agency has not yet announced when it will reschedule that report.

The Federal Reserve next meets on October 29 and 30. Fed officials have repeatedly said their decisions are based on the data, and it's unclear how a delay in government reporting will impact their debate on when to pull back their stimulus program. To top of page

First Published: October 17, 2013: 9:24 AM ET


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What debt crisis? Rally could keep going

S&P Dow 2013

Both the S&P and Dow have been on a tear in 2013.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Answer: Probably nothing -- at least not for the next few months

"The amazing part of this whole situation was that investors were not going to let this rally go away," said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential. She noted that few investors were willing to take big bets against the market through short positions (i.e. investments that pay off when stocks fall) during the past month.

The Dow gained more than 1% since the government shutdown kicked off on October 1st. The index is now up 17% for the year and is hovering around its all-time highs. The broader S&P 500 is up nearly 21% in 2013 and is just a few points below last month's record high.

Related: JPM's Mary Erdoes: 'The really smart people will just buy stocks'

Wednesday night's debt deal will only give the U.S. a temporary reprieve from the drama that has consumed Washington for the past several weeks.

Still, analysts think investors will be happy to continue ignoring Washington for the next few months. Krosby said the market now has two rallying cries for the rest of the year: Don't fight the Fed. Don't fight the fourth quarter.

Stocks have rallied since the Federal Reserve announced it would not cut back, or taper, its bond buying program. And few expect the Fed to taper before the end of the year because of the uncertainty created by the government shutdown and flirtation with a bond default.

Related: Warren Buffett: Get the debt ceiling out of the picture

As for the fourth quarter, Krosby said it's typically one of the best times for stocks during any year. The market often rallies in November and December. This year, she expects stocks to do even better simply because hedge funds and mutual funds that have trailed the market will be forced to put money to work to catch up to the broader indexes.

Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank, also thinks stock will keep climbing. He doesn't believe they will continue to rise as quickly as they have for most of 2013. But he believes investors have already forgotten the debt scare.

"There's not a lot out there that seems likely to disrupt positive sentiment," McCain said. To top of page

First Published: October 17, 2013: 9:41 AM ET


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Verizon: Apple has an iPhone supply problem

verizon earnings 101713

Verizon posts strong third quarter numbers, but it wasn't able to sell as many new iPhones as it could have.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Chief Financial Officer Fran Shammo told analysts on a conference call that Apple couldn't provide Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500) with enough iPhone 5S smartphones in the first weeks following its release, resulting in a backlog of orders.

That might not bode well for Apple's fourth-quarter financial report, which is due out on Oct. 28. While the company reported a record 9 million iPhone 5S and 5C model sales during the first weekend, this was, after all, the first time Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) released its latest iPhone in the west and China simultaneously.

With the iPhone backlog, Verizon's 3.9 million iPhone activations in the third quarter were unchanged from the second quarter. The good news for Apple and Verizon: iPhone activations were up 26% from the same quarter a year ago. And whatever new iPhones Verizon customers couldn't buy in September simply got pushed over to the current quarter, Shammo said.

IPhone activations made up 51% of the 7.6 million smartphones Verizon customers activated between July and September.

Related story: Verizon bets big on U.S. wireless market

By the numbers: Overall, Verizon posted a strong third quarter. Shares traded 2% higher Thursday after the company beat analysts' expectations. Quarterly profit rose by 30%, while sales increased 4.4%.

At this pace, the telecommunications giant is on track to make 2013 nearly twice as profitable as 2012.

The good news about the lower-than-expected iPhone activations was that Verizon's closely watched wireless service profit margin improved to 51.1% -- well above analysts' forecasts. Verizon's wireless service margin typically sinks when Apple unveils a new iPhone, as the wireless company pays Apple hefty upfront costs to purchase the devices.

Verizon said it added 1.1 million customers, most of whom were on wireless accounts. The consumer shift to the latest mobile devices is ongoing, with smartphones making up 33% of phone purchases.

Shammo said the company continues to be affected by the government sequester's automatic spending cuts. Verizon's government contract business suffered a 3% decline compared to last year's third quarter, and the company expects that to keep being a drag. However, the drop in federal revenue was partially offset by an increase in some of the services Verizon provides to the U.S. government, such as storing highly-guarded information in its data centers.

This is the first financial report Verizon issued since the launch of its record-breaking $49 billion corporate bond sale. The funds will be used to help Verizon buy out Vodafone's 45% stake in Verizon Wireless for $130 billion. Shammo said the company expects to close the deal during the first three months of 2014. To top of page

First Published: October 17, 2013: 11:05 AM ET


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China not impressed by U.S. debt deal

house floor shutdown vote

The Congressional vote to avoid a debt default did not win positive reviews from China.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

"[P]oliticians in Washington have done nothing substantial but postponing once again the final bankruptcy of global confidence in the U.S. financial system," government-run Chinese news agency Xinhau Thursday.

Wednesday's vote, the commentary said, "was no more than prolonging the fuse of the U.S. debt bomb one inch longer."

And a Chinese credit rating agency Dagong downgraded the United States, saying the deal did little to change the outlook for the country's financial condition.

It lowered its view of the U.S. debt rating from A to A- and kept it on negative credit outlook, which means further downgrades are possible.

"The government is still approaching the verge of default crisis, a situation that cannot be substantially alleviated in the foreseeable future," the firm wrote in a note.

The firm's ratings are not widely followed outside of China, which owned $1.3 trillion in Treasuries as of July. That's almost a quarter of debt held overseas.

The criticism of the U.S. debt and political crisis by China has been building for some time.

A week ago Chinese Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said that a solution had to be found quickly to "ensure the safety of Chinese investments" and provide stability for economies around the globe.

And another commentary from Xinhau earlier this week said the "pernicious impasse" in Washington warrants a move to a "de-Americanized world." To top of page

First Published: October 17, 2013: 9:42 AM ET


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Shutdown ends, but small businesses lost big

smoky mountain national park shutdown

The 16-day shutdown cost an estimated $33 million in lost tourist money around the Great Smoky Mountains National Park.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Rafting outfits, wedding photographers and firms with government contracts were examples of small businesses that took a hit during the 16-day shutdown. Now that the impasse has ended, they're relieved -- but angry at the unnecessary toll it took on their businesses.

The shutdown mandated the closure of the nation's national parks, including the Great Smoky Mountains, which covers more than 800 square miles in North Carolina and Tennessee. It's the country's most visited national park, and tourism brings in millions of dollars to area businesses every year.

Steve Morse, an economist with Western Carolina University, estimates that the first 10 days of the shutdown cost more than $33 million in lost visitor spending to businesses located within 60 miles of the park.

"About 80% of that money would have trickled down to restaurants, hotels, souvenir shops, gas stations, rafting and other outdoor recreational businesses," said Morse.

Related: Shutdown is a $24 billion hit the U.S. economy

One of those business owners, Jeff Smith, estimates that he lost $20,000, or 10% of his annual revenue, because of the shutdown. "That money is gone. We can't recover it this year and that's a shame for a small business like ours," said Smith, who runs the Jonathan Creek Inn in Maggie Valley, N.C., 15 minutes from Smoky Mountains National Park.

October is especially crucial for the inn because it's the peak tourist month. Tens of thousands of tourists come from surrounding cities to take in the fall foliage.

"We're just hoping that the leaves are still vibrant and the rest of October is good," he said.

Related: U.S. crisis is over, for now. To top of page

First Published: October 17, 2013: 11:21 AM ET


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Panda cam returns as government reopens

panda cam 101713

The pandas are back! Online, at least. They've been in the zoo the whole time.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

The nation got its first glimpse in nearly three weeks of Tian Tian, Mei Xiang and the unnamed cub Thursday morning when the Smithsonian National Zoo brought a slate of live cameras back online. The cameras had been shuttered along with the rest of the zoo on Oct. 1 when the federal government closed. The zoo itself is still closed and will reopen to visitors on Friday.

But some virtual visitors looking for a peek at the pandas found the reopening wasn't without hiccups.

The Zoo acknowledged visitors "may experience some difficulty streaming the cams" because they "can only handle a limited number of connections" and are very popular.

Related: China swaps pandas for uranium in trade deals

Perhaps to satisfy the interest, the zoo posted online a video clip of the cub squealing adorably, apparently during a veterinary exam. She is now nearly eight weeks old and actually looks like a panda -- rather than the pink infant born to Mei Xiang in August. She's gained 2 pounds, begun to open her eyes and "now reacts to the noises she hears in the panda house," the zoo said.

Also back online are over a dozen other zoo cameras, including views of leopards, fishing cats, gorillas and a particularly fuzzy window into the naked mole-rat's habitat. To top of page

First Published: October 17, 2013: 11:40 AM ET


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Wal-Mart moms vent on economy and 'disgusting' politics

walmart women focus group

On Wednesday night, ten moms sat down to discuss Washington and the economy in a Wal-Mart sponsored focus group.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

The women had gathered as part of an annual focus group organized in different cities by the country's largest retailer Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500). The meetings help Wal-Mart take the average woman's pulse on what they're confronting in their own lives and also their take on hot national issues.

This year, the discussion focused on budgets -- in their households and the federal government.

Paring back was a common theme. The women said they've had to cut back on big purchases and that they worry about paying for their children's field trips at school. One even moved back in with her parents.

They worried about whether they will achieve the American dream.

But they were hopeful -- all 10 women said things will get better.

Related: Shutdown took $24 billion bite out of economy

When their conversation turned to Washington, they agreed that the system is broken. The women debated how well the politicians are serving them and who was to blame for the crisis. They believed that women would do a much better job in office.

The women only introduced themselves using their first names, and CNNMoney watched a live webcast of the focus group.

Here are some highlights from Wednesday's discussion:

Families stretching their dollars: "The dollar doesn't go as far as it used to. You tell your kids everything is okay, and you go into your bedroom and ask yourself how you're going to pay for everything."

- "I'm not where I thought I was going to be at this point in my life. I was living the high life...Now my family is living with my parents. My husband just graduated from law school and he's making $37,000 a year."

- "The biggest change we made is that we no longer make big changes. We haven't bought a big SUV. We haven't gone on a big vacation. We've had to cut back."

Repulsed by shutdown drama: "The partisan politics are disgusting. They're saying, 'I don't like what your party has done, so I'm going to shut down the government, so our party gets what they want.' They don't think about constituents. You learn these things in kindergarten."

- "Politicians care about getting my votes, but they don't care about me as a person."

Reminder of the Depression: "My grandmother lived through the Depression and she is still impacted by that. So I feel like we are going to be impacted by this situation in the long run."

-"What we have in Washington is an irreparable great divide. Compromise is no longer in their vocabulary."

To top of page

First Published: October 17, 2013: 11:46 AM ET


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